Market Report Dairy 2025 – Trends, Valuations & M&A

The dairy sector shows a stable yet nuanced performance in 2025, despite ongoing macro-economic pressure and increasingly stringent regulation. While the MSCI World Index recorded strong growth over the past five years, the dairy index remained relatively flat. The weighted Dairy Index, however, outperformed the global Food & Beverage index with approximately 12.6% growth, underlining the sector’s defensive character and predictable cash flow profile.

Valuations of listed dairy companies remain largely conservative. The median EV/EBITDA multiple stands at around 9.5×, while the EV/EBIT multiple is approximately 13.2×. Within this range, valuation dispersion is significant: premium and niche-focused players achieve higher multiples driven by strong margins and growth, whereas more commodity-oriented businesses trade at lower levels due to limited differentiation and pricing pressure.

Performance dispersion within the dairy sector is also substantial. Median revenue growth over 2024–2026 is approximately 4.0%, reflecting stable but moderate growth above inflation. Beneath this average lie clear regional and strategic differences. Companies operating in Asia and Oceania show significantly higher growth rates, supported by population growth and increasing dairy consumption in emerging markets. Specialised players such as a2 Milk Company and Kri-Kri deliver standout performance through niche focus and product innovation, while European players largely operate in mature and saturated markets with limited growth.

Profitability levels vary widely across the peer group. EBITDA margins range from approximately 6–8% for more commodity-driven processors to above 15–20% for premium and niche specialists. Companies with strong brand positioning, clear differentiation and a focus on value-added products are best positioned to protect margins, while traditional dairy processors with limited scale advantages continue to face margin pressure.

Several structural trends continue to shape the sector. Consumer demand increasingly focuses on health, transparency and protein-rich nutrition. Shoppers seek less processed products, greater insight into origin and production methods, and functional dairy concepts aligned with active lifestyles. At the same time, stricter environmental regulation and a declining livestock base are constraining milk supply. Innovation in areas such as hybrid dairy products and protein-enriched offerings is therefore gaining momentum. In line with these developments, M&A activity remains resilient: since 2022, transaction volumes in the European food and dairy market have remained stable, with consistent year-end peaks and sustained interest from both strategic buyers and private equity.

For producers, investors and strategic buyers, this report provides valuable benchmarks on market development, valuations, competitive dynamics, sector trends and transaction activity, supporting strategic decision-making related to growth, consolidation, repositioning and scale.

Would you like full analyses, transaction overviews, current valuation multiples and sector-specific insights?
View the full Dairy Market Report Q4 2025 (in Dutch) here.